I assume that each of the major parties has hard-core supporters who will always vote for the parties' candidate; I'd guess that each party can count on 25%-30% of all voters. The rest of the voters are up for grabs.
I've been trying to figure out why - given all the news about the Bush Administration's misdeeds on the economy and the war - that most of those 'up for grabs' voters would want to dump a bad administration. However, even those voters are split evenly. How can that be?
The following shows how influential the rabid right news media can be.
A new study by the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) shows that supporters of President Bush hold wildly inaccurate views about the world. For example, "a large majority [72 percent] of Bush supporters believe that before the war Iraq had weapons of mass destruction."[1] Most Bush supporters [57 percent] also believe that the recently released report by Charles Duelfer, the administration's hand-picked weapons inspector, concluded Iraq either had WMD or a major program for developing them.[2] In fact, the report concluded "Saddam Hussein did not produce or possess any weapons of mass destruction for more than a decade before the U.S.-led invasion" and the U.N. inspection regime had "curbed his ability to build or develop weapons."[3]
According to the study, 75 percent Bush supporters also believe "Iraq was providing substantial support to al Qaeda."[4] Most Bush supporters [55 percent] believe that was the conclusion of the 9/11 commission.[5] In fact, the 9/11 commission concluded there was no "collaborative relationship" between al-Qaeda and Iraq.[6]
Bush supporters also hold inaccurate views about world public opinion of the war in Iraq and a range of Bush's foreign policy positions.[7]
Sources:
1. "The Separate Realities of Bush and Kerry Supporters," Program on International Policy Attitudes, 10/21/04, http://daily.misleader.org/ctt.asp?u=1918585&l=64454.
2. Ibid, http://daily.misleader.org/ctt.asp?u=1918585&l=64454.
3. "Iraq's Illicit Weapons Gone Since Early '90s, CIA Says," Los Angeles Times, 10/07/04, http://daily.misleader.org/ctt.asp?u=1918585&l=64455.
4. "The Separate Realities of Bush and Kerry Supporters," Program on International Policy Attitudes, 10/21/04, http://daily.misleader.org/ctt.asp?u=1918585&l=64454.
5. Ibid, http://daily.misleader.org/ctt.asp?u=1918585&l=64454.
6. "Al Qaeda-Hussein Link Is Dismissed," Washington Post, 6/17/04, http://daily.misleader.org/ctt.asp?u=1918585&l=64456.
7. "The Separate Realities of Bush and Kerry Supporters," Program on International Policy Attitudes, 10/21/04, http://daily.misleader.org/ctt.asp?u=1918585&l=64454.

